This post is a little different than others. It will probably not be applicable to other’s not in our specific situation. However, I wanted to share our thought process and things we are considering as we discuss and contemplate whether we will be canceling or taking an international trip as a new Covid variant spreads across the world.
Background
We currently have a trip booked to Paris for December 25-31 with our kids. We booked this in October when we thought both kids would finally be vaccinated, and travel would open up a little. Because we are tied to school schedules, and because neither of us are particularly tied to big extended family holiday get togethers, this trip seemed ideal. France has entry and indoor requirements, and we felt that in a lot of ways, it was safer to travel than to be indoors with unvaccinated family members. We’ve seen pictures of European Christmas markets and Carter has learned about Paris at school and it seemed like an approachable first Europe jaunt for us as a full family.
Enter Omicron, throwing risk calculations into question.
Framing our concerns precisely
Something important to do for my sanity, and something that we’ve done through the pandemic, is taking a step back and framing the question. This applies to decisions on eating out, sending our kids to school, and lots of other hard choices over these past 2 years. What if the worst happens? Well, what does the worst even mean? What is the likelihood of the worst happening? Now that we know the risk and outcomes, is there anything we can do to mitigate that risk? And then we can make the decision: is it worth it?
Why are we looking into canceling our trip to Paris? Because I am worried and anxious over all the potential things that could go wrong. But what does that mean precisely? I am worried about getting Covid. I can be even more precise than that. I am concerned about getting covid in Paris and being unable to travel back home timely. Thinking with my math-y brain, I like to do my best to make estimates for the likelihood of potential outcomes, and problem-solve what we would do in each situation. Listing out what I am concerned about can help me think about what I am actually concerned about in relation to the likelihood of the thing happening. So much of travel is just being prepared the best we can and then knowing that if something happens out of our control, we will work together as a family to solve it.
Get Vaccinated
Before I go further, I think it’s vitally important to note that Ben and I are triple-vaxxed, Carter is fully vaxxed, and Ellie is in a research study where her odds of being vaccinated are 66%. We are and have been continuously monitoring the risk of each situation we put ourselves in and are making sure that we consistently weigh whether the things we do are worth the risk. This is different for each person and family. Due to our age and vax status, we are not concerned about getting sick from Covid and requiring hospitalization abroad or requiring a med-evac. If anyone is unvaccinated and thinking of traveling, especially internationally, please reconsider. The government can’t force you to get vaccinated, but you don’t get to participate in regular life as a potential vector who hasn’t taken minimal precautionary steps.
Being Flexible in Bookings (and in Attitude!)
With flexible bookings, money or sunk costs are thankfully NOT something influencing our decision to go or not. Everything we have currently booked is refundable or changeable without penalty. Up until 2 days before the trip, we could move our flights to March, cancel all of our hotels, and be out no other money. We are not taking train tickets out of town in Paris, so we have not pre-booked any tickets, and we have not yet bought or reserved museum tickets because the flexibility is more important to us than potentially missing out on a museum. If any part of a trip you’re taking is non-refundable, look into travel insurance. We are also trying to be flexible in our attitude (although it is hard!) This trip is not a do or die once in a lifetime opportunity. If it works out, it will be great. If it doesn’t, we will be sad. I will probably cry at the accumulated frustration of the past 2 years, but we are healthy and well-off, and will go at some point in the future. Truly first world problems.
Being Informed and Fact-Finding
The rules and guidelines for safety are constantly changing. Looking back, I should have not worried about keeping up-to-date on a daily basis so early and just said when the trip is within a month, then I will review the most up-to-date rules. We had to be diligent about the requirements for travel to and from Hawaii last year and to Mexico. In both cases, I read blogs, read forums, went to official websites, asked questions, and made sure that we had a plan. For the most part, I viewed this as just part of travel planning, but someone pointed out to me that it felt unfair that this job fell to me alone. For our trip to Paris, the rules are changing weekly, and being informed is something that feels within my control and something I can do so that I can make plans.
Remembering What’s in My Control
I can’t make the government change their rules. I can’t change what other people do. I can’t control what other people think of our decision-making. I can’t even know what things will look like in 2 weeks. I can be informed and thoughtful and make contingency plans so that I can make the best decisions for me and my family (with Ben).
Thinking Through Our Questions
Going back to the things that I’m concerned about, I also want to note that these are above and beyond just a regular international trip with kids. Any trip, especially international, comes with its own concerns regarding general safety, meltdowns, food poisoning and all kinds of other potential worst cases. We have thought through those and decided those risks are acceptable. The following concerns are Covid-specific. What does framing the question properly and thinking through likelihood and solutions look like in practice?
Going to France: I am worried that we will decide not to take the trip or that the borders close, and our Christmas week will be ruined. Potential solution: Remind myself to be flexible, Book a back-up plan.
I am worried about testing requirement confusion and changing requirements Potential solution: I can be more diligent about being informed.
I am worried that we will not have tests turned back around in time for our flights. This is the trickiest part and out of our control in many ways. France requires a test 48 hours prior to departure which will be Dec 23. In the US, it may be hard to get a test turned around in that timeframe. So up until we get that result back, our trip is still in question.
I am NOT worried about kids wearing masks on planes. We have traveled to Hawaii, a similar distance, and the kids are well-practiced after almost 2 years.
While in France: I am worried that the borders will close while we are abroad. Potential solution: Out of my control. Make sure I have the number for the Embassy and other ways to be informed.
I am worried about Paris shutting things down while we are there and ruining our trip. That is out of my control and it seems unlikely. This is also changing daily, and we are watching closely to continue to weigh whether the things that are open are things that we are able to do without worry. We traveled to Mexico and Hawaii, and enjoyed both places, even though they were stricter in many ways. It will be cold, so being limited to outside may be harder.
I am NOT worried about getting Covid and getting sick while in France and requiring hospitalization or medevac. Out of my control and so rare, we will not think about it. Due to our age and vax status, this is actually not a concern. However, the trip was booked with our Chase Sapphire Reserve which comes with some medical coverage.
Returning from France I am worried that we will not have tests turned back around in time for our flights. Once we’re in Europe, to return to the US, a test within 24 hours is actually an easier task as pharmacies there can turn them around quickly. I will continue to stay informed about requirements and resources for getting this testing done.
I am worried about getting Covid. Yes. Very much so. Although the likelihood is low, this is tricky. Breakthrough cases are a thing and Omicron is looking like it is 3 times more contagious than Delta.
My concerns for this can be even further broken down in 3 categories:
First is being a vector and passing it forward. With the transmission so high, there is a chance we could sneak through testing and come back and potentially put people at risk. Testing should help mitigate that, and we can continue to isolate after the trip.
The second concern is having to quarantine in France. The positive person would have to stay in a hotel and pay to book additional nights. I reviewed the quarantine rules for France and, although it would suck, we would be allowed to stay in our hotel (and pay) and get room service or food delivery. I went ahead and pre-reserved a refundable 10 day stay that I can cancel 2 days before (or earlier if we don’t go). If only some of us test positive, we would decide then which flights to move and who goes and who stays behind. We will bring computers with us and go through the proper permissions in case we need to work from abroad. Doable, but not ideal.
An additional concern is the self-blame for getting Covid and taking the risk. So many friends have second-guessed their decisions after testing positive, and I know we would be wondering, even though we did research and made calculations, would we still be able to say this trip was worth it and be able to defend our decision? Less clear.
Final Thoughts
Risk of Covid and testing positive on our way back is our biggest concern. Risk is not constant. We can take steps to mitigate our risk before and while in Paris. We will wear good masks like we do for airplanes. Paris currently requires that anyone indoors at museums or restaurants must have a pass that shows they were vaccinated or tested negative so the risk of getting covid in Paris is lower than in Nashville. We can consider limiting get-togethers and indoor dining or in office meetings and any situation where we will be close to an unvaccinated person.
An additional concern that I’ve highlighted is guilt from getting a positive. The feeling of guilt or not is within my control, but I anticipate that I will have to be more secure in our risk calculations and plans so that I can reduce second guessing as much as possible. We are vaccinated and take precautions. We will be honest with others that we interact with, both through official government affidavits and with friends. We will closely watch every potential exposure from a week prior to our trip and a week after.
For some, risk benefit calculations tell them that travel is a non-negotiable no right now. I think it’s important to consider that when people say to just give up travel for a year, that that may also mean different things based on baseline travel. If it wasn’t for Covid, we would have taken 3-4 international trips in the last 2 years. My mother put off a trip to Japan and hurt her knee and may not be able to go again in her lifetime. In the future, the kids may not want to travel with us. The Notre Dame fire taught us that future travel isn’t always a given. The actual scientific mathematical risk calculations tell me that travel to France is less risky than spending time being around unvaccinated people. For others, school and daycare come with risks but sanity is worth it. For us, travel is part of our routine and part of what we love and if we take steps to reduce the risk where we can, we believe it is worth it.
But would I be able to come back and read these thoughts and think these reasons were good enough? Unclear. Trip still TBD!
